Policy prediction markets: the Fed, tariffs and the Supreme Court
Policy markets ask about decisions by the Federal Reserve, the White House and the courts. Fed rate decisions are a common example: the Federal Reserve's next scheduled meeting is on December 8-9, 2026. Each contract settles on the official announcement or ruling named in its rules.
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Short answer
Policy markets ask about decisions by the Federal Reserve, the White House and the courts. Fed rate decisions are a common example: the Federal Reserve's next scheduled meeting is on December 8-9, 2026. Each contract settles on the official announcement or ruling named in its rules.
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Last checked November 9, 2026
The Fed
The Federal Open Market Committee sets the federal funds target range. It holds eight regularly scheduled meetings a year, plus others as needed. Markets ask whether it will raise, cut or hold. They settle on the Fed's official statement.
| Meeting | Note |
|---|---|
| December 8-9, 2026 | With projections |
The Fed calls each date tentative until it is confirmed at the meeting before.
Tariffs and trade
Markets on tariff rates and trade deals settle on official notices, such as a presidential proclamation or a Federal Register entry, as named in the rules.
The Supreme Court
Case markets ask how or when the Court will rule. They settle on the published opinion. The Court releases opinions on announced days, often in late spring and June.
Sources
Checked November 2, 2026.
Frequently asked questions
When is the next Fed meeting?
December 8-9, 2026.
What settles a Fed market?
The FOMC's official statement on the decision day.
Do you forecast rates?
No. We explain the markets. The price is the traders' view.
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Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.